Economic Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty About AI’s Trajectory

The question

How should people make economic decisions when plausible AI futures differ radically? The project examined how expectations, uncertainty, and personal values shape those choices, including career decisions.

My contribution and approach

I participated in the Safe AI Germany incubator under Pavel Kocourek’s mentorship, bringing an economics and technical perspective. We combined economic modeling and decision theory to explore how different beliefs change the choices available to an individual.

I wrote the project report and presented our work at European Frontier AI Safety Day in Berlin on 5 September 2026.

From research to Career Compass

The project produced Career Compass, a web application that asks users to make their beliefs and values explicit and compares career options across possible AI futures. The report documents the reasoning and includes the presentation material.

What the model leaves open

Making the tool usable required simplifying the possible futures and career choices. Expressing non-monetary values in monetary terms also exposed tensions between economic modeling and ethics. The results depend on those assumptions and on the beliefs supplied by the user.

Related work

My current SPAR project approaches AI’s economic implications through empirical research on technological progress.